The Ghost in the Term Sheet: Why High Offers Often Fail

The Ghost in the Term Sheet: Why High Offers Often Fail

The ink on the Letter of Intent felt damp under my thumb, a thick smudge of blue against a $14,444,444 headline. My heart should have been thumping a triumphant rhythm against my ribs. Instead, I felt a cold, sharp twitch in my jaw. It was the same feeling I had earlier today when a tourist stopped me near the old stone bridge. They wanted the museum of local history. I pointed them toward the east, toward the water, with absolute certainty. Only 14 minutes later did I realize the museum was three blocks west. I had given them a map to nowhere while wearing the face of an expert. That realization-that confidence often masks a catastrophic error-is exactly how a bad business offer operates.

[Confidence is the cheapest currency in a negotiation.]

Most sellers focus on the top-line number, that glittering 8-digit figure that seems to validate a lifetime of 84-hour work weeks. But a headline price is a siren song. It is designed to pull you in so the buyer can drown you in the fine print. I spent the last 24 years watching people sign documents that looked like lifeboats but functioned like anchors. They see the $14,444,444 and they stop reading. They fail to notice the structure that slowly, surgically, removes that wealth before it ever hits their bank account.


The Lesson of the Hospice Musician

Ruby N. understands this better than most bankers. Ruby is a hospice musician. She spends her 44-hour work weeks playing a small Celtic harp for people who are about to leave everything behind. She once told me about a patient, a man who had built a massive logistics company and sold it in 2004. On his deathbed, he didn’t talk about the $44 million price tag. He talked about the three years of litigation that followed because the buyer used a working capital adjustment to claw back a massive chunk of his retirement. He had won the war but lost the peace. He felt cheated, not by the amount, but by the intent. He had been given wrong directions at the most critical junction of his life.

2004

Sale Year

3 Years

Litigation

One of the most dangerous red flags in any offer is the ‘Net Working Capital’ peg. The buyer might offer you a high price, but they stipulate that you must leave a ‘normal’ amount of working capital in the business at closing. If your average working capital is $444,444 but they insist the peg should be $844,444, you just lost $400,000 off the purchase price without the headline number moving a single inch. It is a shell game played with spreadsheets. Most sellers don’t realize that the definition of ‘current assets’ can be manipulated until they are sitting at the closing table, watching their proceeds evaporate. This is where the lack of senior-level guidance becomes a fatal wound. Without someone who knows the mechanics of these adjustments, you are walking into a trap with a smile on your face.


The Psychological Prison of the Earn-Out

Then there is the earn-out. It is presented as a way to ‘bridge the valuation gap.’ The buyer says, ‘We will pay you the full $14,444,444, but only if the company grows by 24 percent over the next 24 months.’ It sounds fair. It sounds like a partnership. In reality, it is often a ghost. Once the buyer takes control of the company, they can change the accounting methods, shift sales to other departments, or load the business with corporate overhead that kills your profitability. You find yourself working for a boss who has every financial incentive to make sure you fail to hit your targets. It is a psychological prison. You are still running your old company, but you no longer own the keys, and the goalposts are being moved while the game is in play.

Guaranteed Cash

$14.4M

Full control, Clean Break

vs.

Earn-Out Ghost

$14.4M (Potential)

Buyer Controls Metrics

I think back to that tourist. I didn’t mean to mislead them. I was just moving too fast, relying on a mental map that was 14 years out of date. Buyers often do the same thing, or worse, they intentionally use complexity to obscure their real goal. They want the assets, the customer list, and the talent, but they want to pay for those things using your future labor. If the offer includes a seller note for more than 34 percent of the total value, you aren’t just selling your business; you are becoming the buyer’s bank. If they mismanage the company and go bankrupt 14 months later, your note is worthless. You have lost the business and the money.


The Hostage Situation: Indemnification

This is why I often tell people to look at the ‘Indemnification’ section with a magnifying glass. Most LOIs have a ‘cap’ and a ‘basket’ for claims. If the buyer finds an issue after the sale, they can hold back money from an escrow account. If that escrow account holds 14 percent of the purchase price for 24 months, that is money you cannot use, cannot invest, and might never see. It is a hostage situation. I have seen buyers manufacture ‘disputes’ just as the escrow period is about to end, simply to negotiate a further discount on the price. It is predatory, but in the world of high-stakes M&A, it is also common.

[Complexity is the veil used to hide a lack of integrity.]

When you are at this crossroads, you need a navigator who has seen the terrain from every angle. You need someone who knows that a $10,000,004 all-cash offer is almost always superior to a $14,444,444 offer filled with contingencies and earn-outs. This is the specific value provided by KMF Business Advisors. They don’t just look at the headline; they look at the plumbing of the deal. They understand that a business sale is a transition of a life’s work, not just a transaction of shares. Their expertise in deal structuring ensures that the money you are promised is the money you actually receive. They protect the seller from the ‘wrong directions’ that so many amateur advisors accidentally provide.


Clarity Over Movement

Ruby N. played a song for that logistics mogul on his final day. It was a simple melody, nothing like the complex legal structures that had haunted his final decade. He told her that he wished he had valued his time as much as he valued his EBITDA. He wished he had seen through the complexity earlier. We often mistake movement for progress and big numbers for success. But true success in a business exit is clarity. It is the ability to walk away from the closing table with a clean break and a full bank account, knowing that you haven’t left a trail of liabilities behind you.

Desired Outcome

Clarity Achieved

MAX

If an offer feels off, it usually is. Trust that physical sensation of unease. If the buyer is pushing for a 44 percent earn-out or if the working capital peg seems skewed, don’t ignore it. Don’t let the ego of a high headline price blind you to the reality of the terms. Negotiation is not about who can shout the loudest; it is about who understands the math of the fine print. I still feel bad about that tourist. I hope they found the museum. I hope they didn’t walk for 84 minutes in the wrong direction because of my misplaced confidence. In business, you don’t get to apologize for wrong directions after the contract is signed. You only get one chance to exit correctly.


The Power of the Qualifier

Look at the representations and warranties. Are they ‘to the best of your knowledge,’ or are they absolute? This single phrase can be the difference between a peaceful retirement and a 4-year legal battle. A buyer who insists on absolute representations is looking for a way to sue you later. They are setting a trap. A fair buyer understands that no business is perfect and will allow for knowledge qualifiers. This is the kind of detail that a senior advisor will catch while you are still focused on the purchase price.

ABSOLUTE

🚫

You guarantee the statement is fact, regardless of your awareness.

KNOWLEDGE QUALIFIER

✅

You guarantee based on what you reasonably knew or should have known.

I remember another story Ruby told me. She played for a woman who sold a small bakery. The offer was modest, only $444,444. But it was all cash. No earn-out. No seller note. A small, 4-month escrow for taxes. The woman was happy. She spent her final years traveling, not worrying about a buyer’s quarterly reports. She had the right map. She had the right guide. The anatomy of a bad offer is always the same: it is a beautiful skin stretched over a skeletal, dangerous frame. To see the bones, you have to be willing to look past the skin. You have to be willing to ask why the buyer is offering so much more than the business is worth on paper. Usually, the answer is that they don’t actually intend to pay it. They intend to adjust it, claw it back, or offset it against imaginary damages.

Do not be the person who follows the wrong directions because they were delivered with a smile and a big number. Demand simplicity. Demand clarity. And most importantly, demand a partner who has been through the woods enough times to know where the quicksand is hidden. Your legacy is worth more than a smudged signature on a deceptive document. It is worth the truth, no matter how much the buyer tries to hide it under 144 pages of legalese.

If an offer feels off, it usually is. Trust that physical sensation of unease. If the buyer is pushing for a 44 percent earn-out or if the working capital peg seems skewed, don’t ignore it. Don’t let the ego of a high headline price blind you to the reality of the terms. Negotiation is not about who can shout the loudest; it is about who understands the math of the fine print. I still feel bad about that tourist. I hope they found the museum. I hope they didn’t walk for 84 minutes in the wrong direction because of my misplaced confidence. In business, you don’t get to apologize for wrong directions after the contract is signed. You only get one chance to exit correctly.

Summary of Protection

WCI Pegs: Demand Clarity

Earn-Outs: Avoid Control Loss

Indemnification: Check the Cap/Basket

Your exit deserves a skilled navigator, not just a big number.